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Prediction for CME (2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-08-02T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26298/-1 CME Note: This CME is seen as a halo CME with a bulk portion seen more predominantly to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The more full halo portion is fairly faint in coronagraph imagery. The source of this CME is an S-shaped filament eruption stretching from roughly N10 to S15. There is clear dimming associated with this source as seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-08-02T08:00Z. This dimming stretches from W10 to W30 within the N10 to S15 latitudes. Arrival signature: clear magnetic field enhancement from 10 to 19 nT and later to about 23 nT along sharp rises in ACE/DSCOVR density, velocity, and temperature parameters. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-05T02:10Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 6.67 Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-05T13:42Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0 Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2023 Aug 02 1254 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 30802 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Aug 2023, 1253UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2023 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with four M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.4 flares which peaked at 14:09 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3380) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C3 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare. Coronal mass ejections: Type IV solar radio burst occurred on Aug 02 around 08:00 UTC. This radio burst was associated with the M-class flare from NOAA-AR 3380, located near to the west limb. This has been associate with a coronal mass ejection potentially with an Earth directed component. Future analysis is ongoing to estimated the speed and potentially the arrival time to Earth as well as the impact. No other Earth directed component of Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available coronograph imagery. Coronal holes: An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole has reached the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug. Solar wind: Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging from 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -8 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 3 nT to 12 nT. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed on 29 Jul. The solar wind speed may increase if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours. Solar wind enhancements may occur tomorrow due to the fast solar wind from the coronal which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01. Geomagnetism: During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. NOAA reported Kp 1 to 3 and K BEL reported 4 for a shorter intervals. This is a sign of the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed on 29 Jul. The geomagnetic condition may increase to unsettled or active conditions if any remnants from those CME arrive at Earth in the coming 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 14:00 and dropped below the 17:40 UTC in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level. It is that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.Lead Time: 61.27 hour(s) Difference: -11.53 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-08-02T12:54Z |
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